[ETH] Optimized Trend Strategy - Lorenzo SuperScalpStrategy Title: Optimized Trend Strategy - Lorenzo SuperScalp
Description:
The Optimized Trend Strategy is a comprehensive trading system tailored for Ethereum (ETH) and optimized for the 15-minute timeframe but adaptable to various timeframes. This strategy utilizes a combination of technical indicators—RSI, Bollinger Bands, and MACD—to identify and act on price trends efficiently, providing traders with actionable buy and sell signals based on market conditions.
Key Features:
Multi-Indicator Approach:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Identifies overbought and oversold conditions to time market entries and exits.
Bollinger Bands: Acts as a dynamic support and resistance level, helping to pinpoint precise entry and exit zones.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Detects momentum changes through bullish and bearish crossovers.
Signal Conditions:
Buy Signal:
RSI is below 45 (indicating an oversold condition).
Price is near or below the lower Bollinger Band.
MACD bullish crossover occurs.
Sell Signal:
RSI is above 55 (indicating an overbought condition).
Price is near or above the upper Bollinger Band.
MACD bearish crossunder occurs.
Trade Execution Logic:
Long Trades: Opened when a buy signal flashes. If there’s an open short position, it is closed before opening a long.
Short Trades: Opened when a sell signal flashes. If there’s an open long position, it is closed before opening a short.
The strategy also ensures a minimum number of bars between consecutive trades to avoid rapid trading in choppy conditions.
Pyramiding Support:
Up to 3 consecutive trades in the same direction are allowed, enabling traders to scale into positions based on strong signals.
Visual Indicators:
RSI Levels: Dotted lines at 45 and 55 for quick reference to oversold and overbought levels.
Buy and Sell Signals: Visual markers on the chart indicate where trades are executed, ensuring clarity on entry and exit points.
Best Used For:
Swing Trading & Scalping: While optimized for the 15-minute timeframe, this strategy works across various timeframes, making it suitable for both short-term scalping and swing trading.
Crypto Trading: Tailored for Ethereum but effective for other cryptocurrencies due to its dynamic indicator setup.
Cari dalam skrip untuk "swing trading"
SimpleChart Indicator V1copyThe SimpleChart Indicator V1 is a technical analysis tool designed to facilitate trading decisions by providing clear buy and sell signals based on the relationship between the price and a Simple Moving Average (SMA). This indicator is especially useful for traders who prefer a straightforward, rule-based approach to market analysis.
Key Features:
Simple Moving Average (SMA): The core of the indicator is the SMA, which smooths price data over a specified period (default is 14 periods). This helps to identify the overall trend direction by filtering out short-term fluctuations.
Buy Signal: A buy signal is generated when the price crosses above the SMA. This indicates a potential upward trend, suggesting that it may be a good time to enter a long position.
Sell Signal: Conversely, a sell signal is triggered when the price crosses below the SMA. This suggests a potential downward trend, indicating that it may be time to exit a long position or consider a short position.
Visual Representation: The indicator provides clear visual cues on the chart:
Buy signals are marked with green labels below the bars.
Sell signals are marked with red labels above the bars.
The SMA line is plotted in blue, making it easy to identify the trend.
Benefits of Using SimpleChart Indicator V1:
User-Friendly: The indicator is easy to understand and implement, making it suitable for both novice and experienced traders.
Clarity in Decision Making: By providing distinct signals, the indicator helps traders make quick decisions based on the market's behavior concerning the moving average.
Trend Following: The SimpleChart Indicator V1 is particularly effective in trending markets, allowing traders to capture significant price movements.
Use Cases:
Day Trading: Traders can use the indicator for short-term trades by reacting quickly to buy and sell signals.
Swing Trading: The SMA helps identify trends over a longer period, making it suitable for swing traders looking to capitalize on price movements.
In summary, the SimpleChart Indicator V1 is a valuable tool for traders seeking a straightforward and effective way to analyze market trends and make informed trading decisions.
HMA Fibonacci Rainbow Waves[FibonacciFlux]HMA Fibonacci Rainbow Waves
Overview
The HMA Fibonacci Rainbow Waves script is designed for traders who strive for simplicity in their trading strategies while navigating the complexities of chart analysis. By utilizing the Hull Moving Average (HMA) for smoothing, this indicator provides a refined view of price action. However, over-smoothing can sometimes filter out essential market noise. To address this, the indicator incorporates a unique approach by applying Fibonacci weighting to seven HMA200 calculations. This enables traders to capture noise while effectively following market trends.
BTCUSDT 4hour
Key Features
1. Hull Moving Average (HMA)
- The HMA is known for its responsiveness and ability to filter out noise, providing a clear view of the underlying trend.
- The indicator balances smoothness with responsiveness, making it suitable for various trading styles, from day trading to swing trading and scalping.
2. Fibonacci Weighting
- By applying Fibonacci numbers to the HMA calculations, the indicator enhances its ability to adapt to market dynamics.
- This unique approach allows traders to maintain clarity while accommodating fluctuations in price action, ensuring they do not miss critical entry points.
3. Multi-Timeframe Functionality
- The HMA Fibonacci Rainbow Waves indicator operates effectively across multiple timeframes, including daily, 4-hour, 5-minute, and 1-minute charts.
- This adaptability makes it a valuable tool for traders, regardless of their preferred trading style, facilitating seamless transitions between different market conditions.
4. Noise Capture and Trend Following
- The indicator is designed to capture essential market movements while filtering out excessive noise.
- It helps traders follow trends without being overwhelmed by market fluctuations, allowing them to act on advantageous entry conditions that might otherwise be obscured.
Signal Generation and Alerts
- The indicator generates buy and sell signals based on the relationship between the HMAs, providing clear entry and exit points.
- Customizable alerts keep traders informed of significant changes in market conditions, enabling timely decisions that reflect the nuances of market behavior.
BTCUSDT 15min
Benefits
1. Simplified Trading Approach
- Traders can focus on core market movements without being distracted by excessive noise, enhancing decision-making efficiency and minimizing emotional trading.
2. Flexibility Across Timeframes
- The ability to function across different timeframes allows traders to apply the same principles in various trading scenarios, from quick scalps to strategic swing trades.
3. Enhanced Market Insights
- The combination of HMA smoothing and Fibonacci weighting offers a comprehensive view of market trends, aiding traders in identifying potential opportunities, including those that institutional investors might exploit.
4. Resolving Complexity with Simplicity
- This indicator elegantly bridges the gap between simplicity and complexity, providing a single tool that addresses the inherent contradictions in trading psychology. It allows traders to simplify their strategies while still capturing the dynamic nature of the market.
BTCUSDT 1min
Conclusion
The HMA Fibonacci Rainbow Waves script is a powerful tool for traders seeking to streamline their analysis while effectively capturing market dynamics. By integrating advanced smoothing techniques with Fibonacci weighting, this indicator empowers traders to follow market trends confidently across various timeframes. Its design makes it an essential asset for both novice and experienced traders alike, offering insights that can reveal entry points often missed by traditional indicators.
Open Source Collaboration
This script is released as an open-source project on TradingView, inviting the global trading community to contribute and enhance its functionality. By collaborating on this project, traders can help improve its capabilities, ensuring it remains a valuable resource for market participants around the world.
Important Note
As with any trading tool, it is crucial to conduct thorough analysis and risk management when using this indicator. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and traders should always be prepared for potential market fluctuations.
Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI [BackQuant]Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI
Introducing BackQuant's Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI, a cutting-edge indicator that enhances the classic Relative Strength Index (RSI) by applying both a Savitzky-Golay filter and a median filter to provide smoother and more reliable signals. This advanced approach helps reduce noise and captures true momentum trends with greater precision. Let’s break down how the indicator works, the features it offers, and how it can improve your trading strategy.
Core Concept: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It oscillates between 0 and 100, with levels above 70 typically indicating overbought conditions and levels below 30 indicating oversold conditions. However, the standard RSI can sometimes generate noisy signals, especially in volatile markets, making it challenging to identify reliable entry and exit points.
To improve upon the traditional RSI, this indicator introduces two powerful filters: the Savitzky-Golay filter and a median filter.
Savitzky-Golay Filter: Smoothing with Precision
The Savitzky-Golay filter is a digital filtering technique used to smooth data while preserving important features, such as peaks and trends. Unlike simple moving averages that can distort important price data, the Savitzky-Golay filter uses polynomial regression to fit the data, providing a more accurate and less lagging result.
In this script, the Savitzky-Golay filter is applied to the RSI values to smooth out short-term fluctuations and provide a more reliable signal. By using a window size of 5 and a polynomial degree of 2, the filter effectively reduces noise without compromising the integrity of the underlying price movements.
Median Filter: Reducing Outliers
After applying the Savitzky-Golay filter, the median filter is applied to the smoothed RSI values. The median filter is particularly effective at removing short-lived outliers, further enhancing the accuracy of the RSI by reducing the impact of sudden and temporary price spikes or drops. This combination of filters creates an ultra-smooth RSI that is better suited for detecting true market trends.
Long and Short Signals
The Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI generates long and short signals based on user-defined threshold levels:
Long Signals: A long signal is triggered when the filtered RSI exceeds the Long Threshold (default set at 176). This indicates that momentum is shifting upward, and it may present a good buying opportunity.
Short Signals: A short signal is generated when the filtered RSI falls below the Short Threshold (default set at 162). This suggests that momentum is weakening, potentially signaling a selling opportunity or exit from a long position.
These threshold levels can be adjusted to suit different market conditions and timeframes, allowing traders to fine-tune the sensitivity of the indicator.
Customization and Visualization Options
The Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI comes with several customization options, enabling traders to tailor the indicator to their specific needs:
Calculation Source: Select the price source for the RSI calculation (default is OHLC4, but it can be changed to close, open, high, or low prices).
RSI Period: Adjust the lookback period for the RSI calculation (default is 14).
Median Filter Length: Control the length of the median filter applied to the smoothed RSI, affecting how much noise is removed from the signal.
Threshold Levels: Customize the long and short thresholds to define the sensitivity for generating buy and sell signals.
UI Settings: Choose whether to display the RSI and thresholds on the chart, color the bars according to trend direction, and adjust the line width and colors used for long and short signals.
Visual Feedback: Color-Coded Signals and Thresholds
To make the signals easier to interpret, the indicator offers visual feedback by coloring the price bars and the RSI plot according to the current market trend:
Green Bars indicate long signals when momentum is bullish.
Red Bars indicate short signals when momentum is bearish.
Gray Bars indicate neutral or undecided conditions when no clear signal is present.
In addition, the Long and Short Thresholds can be plotted directly on the chart to provide a clear reference for when signals are triggered, allowing traders to visually gauge the strength of the RSI relative to its thresholds.
Alerts for Automation
For traders who prefer automated notifications, the Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI includes built-in alert conditions for long and short signals. You can configure these alerts to notify you when a buy or sell condition is met, ensuring you never miss a trading opportunity.
Trading Applications
This indicator is versatile and can be used in a variety of trading strategies:
Trend Following: The combination of Savitzky-Golay and median filtering makes this RSI particularly useful for identifying strong trends without being misled by short-term noise. Traders can use the long and short signals to enter trades in the direction of the prevailing trend.
Reversal Trading: By adjusting the threshold levels, traders can use this indicator to spot potential reversals. When the RSI moves from overbought to oversold levels (or vice versa), it may signal a shift in market direction.
Swing Trading: The smoothed RSI provides a clear signal for short to medium-term price movements, making it an excellent tool for swing traders looking to capitalize on momentum shifts.
Risk Management: The filtered RSI can be used as part of a broader risk management strategy, helping traders avoid false signals and stay in trades only when the momentum is strong.
Final Thoughts
The Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI takes the classic RSI to the next level by applying advanced smoothing techniques that reduce noise and improve signal reliability. Whether you’re a trend follower, swing trader, or reversal trader, this indicator provides a more refined approach to momentum analysis, helping you make better-informed trading decisions.
As with all indicators, it is important to backtest thoroughly and incorporate sound risk management strategies when using the Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI in your trading system.
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
Options Series - Dynamic Support & Resistance
🌟 Key Features & How It Works:
⭐ Dynamic Support and Resistance Management:
The script dynamically calculates and draws support and resistance lines based on pivot highs and pivot lows. Unlike static levels that remain unchanged, these lines are updated in real-time. When a support or resistance level is breached, the corresponding line is automatically deleted, keeping the chart clean and relevant. This feature ensures that the trader is always looking at valid support and resistance levels based on the current price action.
⭐ Use of Arrays for Line Management:
The script utilizes arrays to store and manage support and resistance lines (array.new_line(0)). This is a more advanced feature of Pine Script v5, allowing for efficient handling of multiple lines on the chart. By using arrays, the script can easily track and manipulate multiple lines (adding, removing, updating), ensuring that the chart remains optimized for real-time analysis.
⭐ Customizable Inputs for Flexibility:
The script includes user inputs for the pivot length and the line width, making it adaptable to different trading styles and preferences. The pivot length determines how sensitive the indicator is to price changes, while the line width allows traders to customize the visual representation of support and resistance levels. These inputs add flexibility and make the script accessible to a broad range of traders.
⭐ Efficient Breach Detection Mechanism:
The isBreached function is a key part of the script. It checks whether the current price has breached any of the existing support or resistance levels. If a breach is detected (i.e., the price crosses below a support or above a resistance), the respective line is deleted, ensuring that only active and valid lines remain on the chart. This automatic update feature reduces the need for manual intervention, helping traders stay focused on key price levels.
⭐ Visual Clarity and Chart Cleanliness:
By deleting breached lines, the script ensures that the chart does not become cluttered with outdated or irrelevant lines. This visual clarity is crucial for traders who rely on clean, simple charts for decision-making. Removing unnecessary information helps traders make faster, more confident decisions based on the current market structure.
⭐ Scalability for Multiple Timeframes:
The use of pivot points makes the script adaptable to different timeframes, from intraday scalping to longer-term swing trading. By changing the pivot length, traders can optimize the indicator for different market environments, ensuring that it can be applied across various asset classes and timeframes.
⭐ Practical for Range-bound and Breakout Trading:
This script is particularly effective for traders who focus on range-bound markets or breakout strategies. It allows them to quickly identify areas where price is likely to reverse (support/resistance) or break out (when support/resistance is breached), providing real-time insight into market dynamics.
⭐ Simplification of Price Action Analysis:
By automating the calculation of pivots and management of support/resistance levels, the script simplifies price action analysis. Traders no longer need to manually draw or monitor these levels, which is a common task in technical analysis. This provides an edge, as it reduces the time spent on chart preparation and helps focus on executing trades.
⭐ Originality:
The script "Options Series - Pivot Based Support & Resistance" is an original approach to generating support and resistance levels using pivot points. Pivot-based techniques are popular, but the script introduces an automated dynamic way of drawing support and resistance lines, tracking breaches, and deleting lines when they are no longer valid. This aspect adds a refreshing layer of interactivity and functionality that sets it apart from basic pivot point scripts. The use of arrays to store and manage multiple support and resistance lines is also a good application of Pine Script’s newer array functionalities.
⭐ Uniqueness of the Script:
The script stands out due to its dynamic management of support and resistance lines. Unlike traditional scripts that simply plot static pivot points, this one evolves with the market by removing broken levels, ensuring only valid support and resistance lines are visible on the chart. This is particularly useful for traders who focus on clean charting. The use of arrays to store and manage the lines, alongside the efficient deletion of lines when breached, demonstrates a solid understanding of Pine Script v5's advanced features, such as array manipulation.
🚀 Conclusion:
This script stands out for its real-time adaptability, dynamic support/resistance management, and efficient use of Pine Script’s advanced features. It a powerful tool for both novice and advanced traders.
The script is an indicator designed to draw support and resistance levels based on pivot highs and lows, dynamically removing lines when they are breached. If a price crosses a support or resistance level, the respective line is deleted, ensuring the chart reflects the current state of support and resistance accurately.
BRT MACD CustomBRT MACD Custom — Adaptive and Flexible MACD for Multi-Timeframe Analysis
The BRT MACD Custom is an advanced version of the traditional MACD indicator, offering additional flexibility and adaptability for multi-timeframe trading. This custom script allows traders to adjust the calculation parameters for MACD to suit their specific trading strategy, timeframe, and market conditions.
Key Features
Multi-Timeframe Support
Unlike the standard MACD, this indicator lets you choose a specific timeframe (different from the chart timeframe) for calculating MACD values. This feature provides more flexibility in analyzing market trends on multiple timeframes without changing the main chart.
Example: You can analyze MACD on a 15-minute timeframe even when your chart is set to 1-minute, giving you broader market insights.
Customizable EMA and Signal Settings
Users can adjust the fast and slow EMA lengths as well as the signal smoothing to better align with their preferred trading strategies. The script allows switching between the two popular types of moving averages — SMA or EMA — for both the MACD and the signal line.
Volatility-Based Adaptive EMA
The script includes an adaptive mechanism for EMA calculation. When the selected timeframe closes, the indicator dynamically adjusts the calculation, ensuring the MACD values respond quickly to market volatility. This makes the indicator more reactive compared to static MACD implementations.
Shift Options for MACD, Signal, and Histogram
The indicator allows shifting the MACD, signal line, and histogram values by one or more bars. This can be useful for backtesting and simulating strategies where you anticipate future price movements.
Signal Alerts for Long and Short Trades
The script generates visual signals when certain conditions are met, indicating potential long or short trade opportunities. These signals are based on MACD and histogram crossovers:
Long Signal: Triggered when MACD is above the signal line and both are rising.
Short Signal: Triggered when MACD is below the signal line and both are falling.
Custom Plotting
The MACD line, signal line, and histogram are plotted on the chart for easy visualization. The histogram changes colors to reflect positive or negative momentum:
Green shades when MACD is above the signal line.
Red shades when MACD is below the signal line.
Applications in Trading
The BRT MACD Custom is ideal for traders who need flexibility in their technical analysis. Its multi-timeframe capabilities and customizable moving averages make it suitable for day trading, swing trading, and long-term investing across a variety of markets.
Scalping: Use the 1-minute or 5-minute timeframe to identify short-term trends while calculating MACD on a higher timeframe such as 15 or 30 minutes.
Swing Trading: Apply the indicator on 1-hour or 4-hour charts to detect mid-term trends.
Long-Term Investing: Analyze daily or weekly charts with longer EMA periods to confirm market direction before making large investments.
Two Pole Butterworth For Loop [BackQuant]Two Pole Butterworth For Loop
PLEASE read the following carefully, as understanding the underlying concepts and logic behind the indicator is key to incorporating it into your trading system in a sound and methodical manner.
Introducing BackQuant's Two Pole Butterworth For Loop (2P BW FL) — an advanced indicator that fuses the power of the Two Pole Butterworth filter with a dynamic for-loop scoring mechanism. This unique approach is designed to extract actionable trading signals by smoothing out price data and then analyzing it using a comparative scoring method. Let's delve into how this indicator works, why it was created, and how it can be used in various trading scenarios.
Understanding the Two Pole Butterworth Filter
The Butterworth filter is a signal processing tool known for its smooth response and minimal distortion. It's often used in electronic and communication systems to filter out unwanted noise. In trading, the Butterworth filter can be applied to price data to smooth out the volatility, providing traders with a clearer view of underlying trends without the whipsaws often associated with market noise.
The Two Pole Butterworth variant further enhances this effect by applying the filter with two poles, effectively creating a sharper transition between the passband and stopband. In simple terms, this allows the filter to follow the price action more closely, reacting to changes while maintaining smoothness.
In this script, the Two Pole Butterworth filter is applied to the Calculation Source (default is set to the closing price), creating a smoothed price series that serves as the foundation for further analysis.
Why Use a Two Pole Butterworth Filter?
The Two Pole Butterworth filter is chosen for its ability to reduce lag while maintaining a smooth output. This makes it an ideal choice for traders who want to capture trends without being misled by short-term volatility or market noise. By filtering the price data, the Two Pole Butterworth enables traders to focus on the broader market movements and avoid false signals.
The For-Loop Scoring Mechanism
In addition to the Butterworth filter, this script uses a for-loop scoring system to evaluate the smoothed price data. The for-loop compares the current value of the filtered price (referred to as "subject") to previous values over a defined range (set by the start and end input). The score is calculated based on whether the subject is higher or lower than the previous points, and the cumulative score is used to determine the strength of the trend.
Long and Short Signal Logic
Long Signals: A long signal is triggered when the score surpasses the Long Threshold (default set at 40). This suggests that the price has built sufficient upward momentum, indicating a potential buying opportunity.
Short Signals: A short signal is triggered when the score crosses under the Short Threshold (default set at -10). This indicates weakening price action or a potential downtrend, signaling a possible selling or shorting opportunity.
By utilizing this scoring system, the indicator identifies moments when the price momentum is shifting, helping traders enter positions at opportune times.
Customization and Visualization Options
One of the strengths of this indicator is its flexibility. Traders can customize various settings to fit their personal trading style or adapt it to different markets and timeframes:
Calculation Periods: Adjust the lookback period for the Butterworth filter, allowing for shorter or longer smoothing depending on the desired sensitivity.
Threshold Levels: Set the long and short thresholds to define when signals should be triggered, giving you control over the balance between sensitivity and specificity.
Signal Line Width and Colors: Customize the visual presentation of the indicator on the chart, including the width of the signal line and the colors used for long and short conditions.
Candlestick and Background Colors: If desired, the indicator can color the candlesticks or the background according to the detected trend, offering additional clarity at a glance.
Trading Applications
This Two Pole Butterworth For Loop indicator is versatile and can be adapted to various market conditions and trading strategies. Here are a few use cases where this indicator shines:
Trend Following: The Butterworth filter smooths the price data, making it easier to follow trends and identify when they are gaining or losing strength. The for-loop scoring system enhances this by providing a clear indication of how strong the current trend is compared to recent history.
Mean Reversion: For traders looking to identify potential reversals, the indicator’s ability to compare the filtered price to previous values over a range of periods allows it to spot moments when the trend may be losing steam, potentially signaling a reversal.
Swing Trading: The combination of smoothing and scoring allows swing traders to capture short to medium-term price movements by filtering out the noise and focusing on significant shifts in momentum.
Risk Management: By providing clear long and short signals, this indicator helps traders manage their risk by offering well-defined entry and exit points. The smooth nature of the Butterworth filter also reduces the risk of getting caught in false signals due to market noise.
Final Thoughts
The Two Pole Butterworth For Loop indicator offers traders a powerful combination of smoothing and scoring to detect meaningful trends and shifts in price momentum. Whether you are a trend follower, swing trader, or someone looking to refine your entry and exit points, this indicator provides the tools to make more informed trading decisions.
As always, it's essential to backtest the indicator on historical data and tailor the settings to your specific trading style and market. While the Butterworth filter helps reduce noise and smooth trends, no indicator can predict the future with absolute certainty, so it should be used in conjunction with other tools and sound risk management practices.
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
(Early Test) Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion# Enhancing Trading Strategies with the Weekly Seasonality Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator
Amidst this pursuit to chase price, a common pitfall emerges: an overemphasis on price movements without adequate attention to risk management, probabilistic analysis, and strategic position sizing. To address these challenges, I developed the **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator**. It is designed to refocus traders on essential aspects of trading, such as risk management and probabilistic returns, thereby catering to both short-term swing traders and long-term investors aiming for tax-efficient positions.
## The Motivation Behind the Indicator
### Overemphasis on Price: A Common Trading Pitfall
Many traders concentrate heavily on price charts and technical indicators, often neglecting the underlying principles of risk management and probabilistic analysis. This overemphasis on price can lead to:
- **Overtrading:** Making frequent trades based solely on price movements without considering the associated risks.
- **Poor Risk Management:** Failing to set appropriate stop-loss levels or position sizes, increasing the potential for significant losses.
- **Emotional Trading:** Letting emotions drive trading decisions rather than objective analysis, which can result in impulsive and irrational trades.
### The Need for Balanced Focus
To achieve sustained trading success, it is crucial to balance price analysis with robust risk management and probabilistic strategies. Key areas of focus include:
1. **Risk Management:** Implementing strategies to protect capital, such as setting stop-loss orders and determining appropriate position sizes based on risk tolerance.
2. **Probabilistic Analysis:** Assessing the likelihood of various market outcomes to make informed trading decisions.
3. **Swing Trading Percent Returns:** Capitalizing on short- to medium-term price movements by buying assets below their average return and selling them above.
## Introducing the Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator
The **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator** is designed to integrate these essential elements into a comprehensive tool that aids traders in making informed, risk-aware decisions. Below, we explore the key components and functionalities of this indicator.
### Key Components of the Indicator
1. **Average Return (%)**
- **Definition:** The mean percentage return for each week across multiple years.
- **Purpose:** Serves as a benchmark to identify weeks with above or below-average performance, guiding buy and sell decisions.
2. **Positive Percentage (%)**
- **Definition:** The proportion of weeks that yielded positive returns.
- **Purpose:** Indicates the consistency of positive returns, helping traders gauge the reliability of certain weeks for trading.
3. **Volatility (%)**
- **Definition:** The standard deviation of weekly returns.
- **Purpose:** Measures the variability of returns, providing insights into the risk associated with trading during specific weeks.
4. **Kelly Ratio**
- **Definition:** A mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the logarithmic growth of capital.
- **Purpose:** Balances potential returns against risks, guiding traders on the appropriate position size to take.
5. **Adjusted Kelly Fraction**
- **Definition:** The Kelly Ratio adjusted based on user-defined risk tolerance and external factors like Federal Reserve (Fed) stance.
- **Purpose:** Personalizes the Kelly Criterion to align with individual risk preferences and market conditions, enhancing risk management.
6. **Position Size ($)**
- **Definition:** The calculated amount to invest based on the Adjusted Kelly Fraction.
- **Purpose:** Ensures that position sizes are aligned with risk management strategies, preventing overexposure to any single trade.
7. **Max Drawdown (%)**
- **Definition:** The maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained.
- **Purpose:** Assesses the worst-case scenario for losses, crucial for understanding potential capital erosion.
### Functionality and Benefits
- **Weekly Data Aggregation:** Aggregates weekly returns across multiple years to provide a robust statistical foundation for decision-making.
- **Quarterly Filtering:** Allows users to filter weeks based on quarters, enabling seasonality analysis and tailored strategies aligned with specific timeframes.
- **Dynamic Risk Adjustment:** Incorporates the Dynamic Kelly Criterion to adjust position sizes in real-time based on changing risk profiles and market conditions.
- **User-Friendly Visualization:** Presents all essential metrics in an organized Summary Table, facilitating quick and informed decision-making.
## The Origin of the Kelly Criterion and Addressing Its Limitations
### Understanding the Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. in 1956, is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the long-term growth of capital. The formula considers both the probability of winning and the payout ratio, balancing potential returns against the risk of loss.
**Kelly Formula:**
\
Where:
- \( b \) = the net odds received on the wager ("b to 1")
- \( p \) = probability of winning
- \( q \) = probability of losing ( \( q = 1 - p \) )
### The Risk of Ruin
While the Kelly Criterion is effective in optimizing growth, it carries inherent risks:
- **Overbetting:** If the input probabilities or payout ratios are misestimated, the Kelly Criterion can suggest overly aggressive position sizes, leading to significant losses.
- **Assumption of Constant Probabilities:** The criterion assumes that probabilities remain constant, which is rarely the case in dynamic markets.
- **Ignoring External Factors:** Traditional Kelly implementations do not account for external factors such as Federal Reserve rates, margin requirements, or market volatility, which can impact risk and returns.
### Addressing Traditional Limitations
Recognizing these limitations, the **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator** introduces enhancements to the traditional Kelly approach:
- **Incorporation of Fed Stance:** Adjusts the Kelly Fraction based on the current stance of the Federal Reserve (neutral, dovish, or hawkish), reflecting broader economic conditions that influence market behavior.
- **Margin and Leverage Considerations:** Accounts for margin rates and leverage, ensuring that position sizes remain within manageable risk parameters.
- **Dynamic Adjustments:** Continuously updates position sizes based on real-time risk assessments and probabilistic analyses, mitigating the risk of ruin associated with static Kelly implementations.
## How the Indicator Aids Traders
### For Short-Term Swing Traders
Short-term swing traders thrive on capitalizing over weekly price movements. The indicator aids them by:
- **Identifying Favorable Weeks:** Highlights weeks with above-average returns and favorable volatility, guiding entry and exit points.
- **Optimal Position Sizing:** Utilizes the Adjusted Kelly Fraction to determine the optimal amount to invest, balancing potential returns with risk exposure.
- **Probabilistic Insights:** Provides metrics like Positive Percentage (%) and Kelly Ratio to assess the likelihood of favorable outcomes, enhancing decision-making.
### For Long-Term Tax-Free Investors
This is effectively a drop-in replacement for DCA which uses fixed position size that doesn't change based on market conditions, as a result, it's like catching multiple falling knifes by the blade and smiling with blood on your hand... I don't know about you, but I'd rather juggle by the hilt and look like an actual professional...
Long-term investors, especially those seeking tax-free positions (e.g., through retirement accounts), benefit from:
- **Consistent Risk Management:** Ensures that position sizes are aligned with long-term capital preservation strategies.
- **Seasonality Analysis:** Allows for strategic positioning based on historical performance trends across different weeks and quarters.
- **Dynamic Adjustments:** Adapts to changing market conditions, maintaining optimal risk profiles over extended investment horizons.
### Developers
Please double check the logic and functionality because I think there are a few issue and I need to crowd source solutions and be responsible about the code I publish. If you have corrections, please DM me or leave a respectful comment.
I want to publish this by the end of the year and include other things like highlighting triple witching weeks, adding columns for volume % stats, VaR and CVaR, alpha, beta (to see the seasonal alpha and beta based off a benchmark ticker and risk free rate ticker and other little goodies.
Burst PowerThe Burst Power indicator is to be used for Indian markets where most stocks have a maximum price band limit of 20%.
This indicator is intended to identify stocks with high potential for significant price movements. By analysing historical price action over a user-defined lookback period, it calculates a Burst Power score that reflects the stock's propensity for rapid and substantial moves. This can be helpful for stock selection in strategies involving momentum bursts, swing trading, or identifying stocks with explosive potential.
Key Components
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Significant Move Counts:
5% Moves: Counts the number of days within the lookback period where the stock had a positive close-to-close move between 5% and 10%.
10% Moves: Counts the number of days with a positive close-to-close move between 10% and 19%.
19% Moves: Counts the number of days with a positive close-to-close move of 19% or more.
Maximum Price Move (%):
Identifies the largest positive close-to-close percentage move within the lookback period, along with the date it occurred.
Burst Power Score:
A composite score calculated using the counts of significant moves: Burst Power =(Count5%/5) +(Count10%/2) + (Count19%/0.5)
The score is then rounded to the nearest whole number.
A higher Burst Power score indicates a higher frequency of significant price bursts.
Visual Indicators:
Table Display: Presents all the calculated data in a customisable table on the chart.
Markers on Chart: Plots markers on the chart where significant moves occurred, aiding visual analysis.
Using the Lookback Period
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The lookback period determines how much historical data the indicator analyses. Users can select from predefined options:
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
A shorter lookback period focuses on recent price action, which may be more relevant for short-term trading strategies. A longer lookback period provides a broader historical context, useful for identifying long-term patterns and behaviors.
Interpreting the Burst Power Score
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High Burst Power Score (≥15):
Indicates the stock frequently experiences significant price moves.
Suitable for traders seeking quick momentum bursts and swing trading opportunities.
Stocks with high scores may be more volatile but offer potential for rapid gains.
Moderate Burst Power Score (10 to 14):
Suggests occasional significant price movements.
May suit traders looking for a balance between volatility and stability.
Low Burst Power Score (<10):
Reflects fewer significant price bursts.
Stocks are more likely to exhibit longer, sustainable, but slower price trends.
May be preferred by traders focusing on steady growth or longer-term investments.
Note: Trading involves uncertainties, and the Burst Power score should be considered as one of many factors in a comprehensive trading strategy. It is essential to incorporate broader market analysis and risk management practices.
Customisation Options
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The indicator offers several customisation settings to tailor the display and functionality to individual preferences:
Display Mode:
Full Mode: Shows the detailed table with all components, including significant move counts, maximum price move, and the Burst Power score.
Mini Mode: Displays only the Burst Power score and its corresponding indicator (green, orange, or red circle).
Show Latest Date Column:
Toggle the display of the "Latest Date" column in the table, which shows the most recent occurrence of each significant move category.
Theme (Dark Mode):
Switch between Dark Mode and Light Mode for better visual integration with your chart's color scheme.
Table Position and Size:
Position: Place the table at various locations on the chart (top, middle, bottom; left, center, right).
Size: Adjust the table's text size (tiny, small, normal, large, huge, auto) for optimal readability.
Header Size: Customise the font size of the table headers (Small, Medium, Large).
Color Settings:
Disable Colors in Table: Option to display the table without background colors, which can be useful for printing or if colors are distracting.
Bullish Closing Filter:
Another customisation here is to count a move only when the closing for the day is strong. For this, we have an additional filter to see if close is within the chosen % of the range of the day. Closing within the top 1/3, for instance, indicates a way more bullish day tha, say, closing within the bottom 25%.
Move Markers on chart:
The indicator also marks out days with significant moves. You can choose to hide or show the markers on the candles/bars.
Practical Applications
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Momentum Trading: High Burst Power scores can help identify stocks that are likely to experience rapid price movements, suitable for momentum traders.
Swing Trading: Traders looking for short- to medium-term opportunities may focus on stocks with moderate to high Burst Power scores.
Positional Trading: Lower Burst Power scores may indicate steadier stocks that are less prone to volatility, aligning with long-term investment strategies.
Risk Management: Understanding a stock's propensity for significant moves can aid in setting appropriate stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Disclaimer: Trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. The Burst Power indicator is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
MENTFX AVERAGES MULTI TIMEFRAMEThe MENTFX AVERAGES MULTIME TIMEFRAME indicator is designed to provide traders with the ability to visualize multiple moving averages (MAs) from higher timeframes on their current chart, regardless of the chart's timeframe. It combines the power of exponential moving averages (EMAs) to help traders identify trends, spot potential reversal points, and make more informed trading decisions.
Key Features:
Multi-Timeframe Moving Averages: This indicator plots moving averages from daily timeframes directly on your chart, helping you keep track of higher timeframe trends while trading in any timeframe.
Customizable Moving Averages: You can adjust the length and visibility of up to three EMAs (default settings are 5, 10, and 20-period EMAs) to suit your trading style.
Overlay on Price: The indicator is designed to be overlaid on your price chart, seamlessly integrating with your existing analysis.
Simple but Effective: By offering a clear visual guide to where price is trading relative to important higher timeframe levels, this indicator helps traders avoid trading against major trends.
Why It’s Unique:
Validation Timeframe Flexibility: Unlike traditional moving average indicators that only work within the same chart's timeframe, the MENTFX AVERAGES M indicator allows you to pull moving averages from higher timeframes (default: Daily) and overlay them on any chart you're currently viewing, whether it's intraday (minutes) or even weekly. This cross-timeframe visibility is critical in determining the true market trend, adding context to your trades.
Customizability: Although the default settings focus on daily EMAs (5, 10, and 20 periods), traders can modify the parameters, including the type of moving average (Simple, Weighted, etc.), making it adaptable for any strategy. Whether you want shorter-term or longer-term averages, this indicator covers your needs.
Trend Confirmation Tool: The use of multiple EMAs helps traders confirm trend direction and potential price breakouts or reversals. For example, when the shorter-term 5 EMA crosses above the 20 EMA, it can signal a potential bullish trend, while the opposite could indicate bearish pressure.
How This Indicator Helps:
Identify Key Support and Resistance Levels: Higher timeframe moving averages often act as dynamic support and resistance. This indicator helps you stay aware of those critical levels, even when trading lower timeframes.
Trend Identification: Knowing where the market is relative to the 5, 10, and 20 EMAs from a higher timeframe gives you a clearer picture of whether you're trading with or against the prevailing trend.
Improved Decision Making: By aligning your trades with the direction of higher timeframe trends, you can increase your confidence in trade entries and exits, avoiding low-probability setups.
Multi-Market Use: This indicator works well across various asset classes—stocks, forex, crypto, and commodities—making it versatile for any trader.
How to Use:
Intraday Trading: Use the daily EMAs as a guide to see if intraday price movements align with longer-term trends.
Swing Trading: Plot daily EMAs to track the strength of a larger trend, using pullbacks to the moving averages as potential entry points.
Trend Trading: Monitor crossovers between the moving averages to signal potential changes in trend direction.
Default Settings:
5 EMA (Daily) – Blue Line
10 EMA (Daily) – Black Line
20 EMA (Daily) – Red Line
These lines will plot on your chart with a subtle opacity (33%) to ensure they don’t obstruct price action, while still providing crucial visual guidance on market trends.
This indicator is perfect for traders who want to blend technical analysis with multi-timeframe insights, helping you stay in sync with broader market movements while executing trades on any timeframe.
S&R Precision Cloud by Dr. Abiram Sivprasad -4 directional biasDescription of the Script
**Script Name:** S&R Precision Cloud by Dr. Abhiram Sivprasad
**Overview:**
This script is designed to identify key support and resistance levels using the Central Pivot Range (CPR) methodology along with daily, weekly, and monthly pivots. It incorporates the Lagging Span from the Ichimoku Cloud to enhance decision-making in trading strategies for intraday, swing, and long-term positions mainly for directional bias.
---
### Key Components:
1. **Central Pivot Range (CPR):**
- **Central Pivot (CP):** Calculated as the average of the high, low, and close prices. This serves as a reference point for price action.
- **Below Central Pivot (BC) and Top Central Pivot (TC):** Derived to create a range that aids in identifying support and resistance levels.
2. **Support and Resistance Levels:**
- The script computes three support (S1, S2, S3) and resistance (R1, R2, R3) levels based on the Central Pivot.
- These levels are plotted for daily, weekly, and monthly time frames, providing traders with multiple reference points.
3. **Lagging Span:**
- The Lagging Span is plotted as the closing price shifted backward by 26 periods (as per Ichimoku settings).
- This serves as a filter for trade entries, where positions should only be taken in the direction opposite to where the price is relative to this line.
4. **User Inputs:**
- The script allows customization through checkboxes to plot daily, weekly, and monthly support and resistance levels as needed.
- Users can choose whether to display CPR and various support/resistance levels for better visual clarity.
5. **Color Coding:**
- The support and resistance lines are color-coded to distinguish between different levels (green for support, red for resistance, and blue for pivots).
---
### Trading Strategies:
- **Intraday Trading:**
- Utilize price movements around the Lagging Span and support/resistance levels for quick trades.
- **Swing Trading:**
- Identify potential reversal points at S2 and R2 levels, confirmed by divergences in price movement.
- **Long-Term Trading:**
- Monitor price behavior against the Lagging Span and significant pivot levels to capture longer trends.
---
### Summary:
This script equips traders with essential tools for technical analysis by clearly defining critical price levels and incorporating the Lagging Span for directional bias. It is suitable for various trading styles, including intraday, swing, and long-term strategies, making it a versatile addition to any trader’s toolkit.
PERFECT PIVOT RANGE DR ABIRAM SIVPRASAD (PPR)PERFECT PIVOT RANGE (PPR) by Dr. Abhiram Sivprasad
The Perfect Pivot Range (PPR) indicator is designed to provide traders with a comprehensive view of key support and resistance levels based on pivot points across different timeframes. This versatile tool allows users to visualize daily, weekly, and monthly pivots along with high and low levels from previous periods, helping traders identify potential areas of price reversals or breakouts.
Features:
Multi-Timeframe Pivots:
Daily, weekly, and monthly pivot levels (Pivot Point, Support 1 & 2, Resistance 1 & 2).
Helps traders understand price levels across various timeframes, from short-term (daily) to long-term (monthly).
Previous High-Low Levels:
Displays the previous week, month, and day high-low levels to highlight key zones of historical support and resistance.
Traders can easily see areas of price action from prior periods, giving context for future price movements.
Customizable Options:
Users can choose which pivot levels and high-lows to display, allowing for flexibility based on trading preferences.
Visual settings can be toggled on and off to suit different trading strategies and timeframes.
Real-Time Data:
All pivot points and levels are dynamically calculated based on real-time price data, ensuring accurate and up-to-date information for decision-making.
How to Use:
Pivot Points: Use daily, weekly, or monthly pivot points to find potential support or resistance levels. Prices above the pivot suggest bullish sentiment, while prices below indicate bearishness.
Previous High-Low: The high-low levels from previous days, weeks, or months can serve as critical zones where price may reverse or break through, indicating potential trade entries or exits.
Confluence: When pivot points or high-low levels overlap across multiple timeframes, they become even stronger levels of support or resistance.
This indicator is suitable for all types of traders (scalpers, swing traders, and long-term investors) looking to enhance their technical analysis and make more informed trading decisions.
Here are three detailed trading strategies for using the Perfect Pivot Range (PPR) indicator for options, stocks, and commodities:
1. Options Buying Strategy with PPR Indicator
Strategy: Buying Call and Put Options Based on Pivot Breakouts
Objective: To capitalize on sharp price movements when key pivot levels are breached, leading to high returns with limited risk in options trading.
Timeframe: 15-minute to 1-hour chart for intraday option trading.
Steps:
Identify the Key Levels:
Use weekly pivots for intraday trading, as they provide more significant levels for options.
Enable the "Previous Week High-Low" to gauge support and resistance from the previous week.
Call Option Setup (Bullish Breakout):
Condition: If the price breaks above the weekly pivot point (PP) with high momentum (indicated by a strong bullish candle), it signifies potential bullishness.
Action: Buy Call Options at the breakout of the weekly pivot.
Confirmation: Check if the price is sustaining above the pivot with a minimum of 1-2 candles (depending on timeframe) and the first resistance (R1) isn’t too far away.
Target: The first resistance (R1) or previous week’s high can be your target for exiting the trade.
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss just below the pivot point (PP) to limit risk.
Put Option Setup (Bearish Breakdown):
Condition: If the price breaks below the weekly pivot (PP) with strong bearish momentum, it’s a signal to expect a downward move.
Action: Buy Put Options on a breakdown below the weekly pivot.
Confirmation: Ensure that the price is closing below the pivot, and check for declining volumes or bearish candles.
Target: The first support (S1) or the previous week’s low.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss just above the pivot point (PP).
Example:
Let’s say the weekly pivot point (PP) is at 1500, the price breaks above and sustains at 1510. You buy a Call Option with a strike price near 1500, and the target will be the first resistance (R1) at 1530.
2. Stock Trading Strategy with PPR Indicator
Strategy: Swing Trading Using Pivot Points and Previous High-Low Levels
Objective: To capture mid-term stock price movements using pivot points and historical high-low levels for better trade entries and exits.
Timeframe: 1-day or 4-hour chart for swing trading.
Steps:
Identify the Trend:
Start by determining the overall trend of the stock using the weekly pivots. If the price is consistently above the pivot point (PP), the trend is bullish; if below, the trend is bearish.
Buy Setup (Bullish Trend Reversal):
Condition: When the stock bounces off the weekly pivot point (PP) or previous week’s low, it signals a bullish reversal.
Action: Enter a long position near the pivot or previous week’s low.
Confirmation: Look for a bullish candle pattern or increasing volumes.
Target: Set your first target at the first resistance (R1) or the previous week’s high.
Stop-Loss: Place your stop-loss just below the previous week’s low or support (S1).
Sell Setup (Bearish Trend Reversal):
Condition: When the price hits the weekly resistance (R1) or previous week’s high and starts to reverse downwards, it’s an opportunity to short-sell the stock.
Action: Enter a short position near the resistance.
Confirmation: Watch for bearish candle patterns or decreasing volume at the resistance.
Target: Your first target would be the weekly pivot point (PP), with the second target as the previous week’s low.
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss just above the resistance (R1).
Use Previous High-Low Levels:
The previous week’s high and low are key levels where price reversals often occur, so use them as reference points for potential entry and exit.
Example:
Stock XYZ is trading at 200. The previous week’s low is 195, and it bounces off that level. You enter a long position with a target of 210 (previous week’s high) and place a stop-loss at 193.
3. Commodity Trading Strategy with PPR Indicator
Strategy: Trend Continuation and Reversal in Commodities
Objective: To capitalize on the strong trends in commodities by using pivot points as key support and resistance levels for trend continuation and reversal.
Timeframe: 1-hour to 4-hour charts for commodities like Gold, Crude Oil, Silver, etc.
Steps:
Identify the Trend:
Use monthly pivots for long-term commodities trading since commodities often follow macroeconomic trends.
The monthly pivot point (PP) will give an idea of the long-term trend direction.
Trend Continuation Setup (Bullish Commodity):
Condition: If the price is consistently trading above the monthly pivot and pulling back towards the pivot without breaking below it, it indicates a bullish continuation.
Action: Enter a long position when the price tests the monthly pivot (PP) and starts moving up again.
Confirmation: Look for a strong bullish candle or an increase in volume to confirm the continuation.
Target: The first resistance (R1) or previous month’s high.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss below the monthly pivot (PP).
Trend Reversal Setup (Bearish Commodity):
Condition: When the price reverses from the monthly resistance (R1) or previous month’s high, it’s a signal for a bearish reversal.
Action: Enter a short position at the resistance level.
Confirmation: Watch for bearish candle patterns or decreasing volumes at the resistance.
Target: Set your first target as the monthly pivot (PP) or the first support (S1).
Stop-Loss: Stop-loss should be placed just above the resistance level.
Using Previous High-Low for Swing Trades:
The previous month’s high and low are important in commodities. They often act as barriers to price movement, so traders should look for breakouts or reversals near these levels.
Example:
Gold is trading at $1800, with a monthly pivot at $1780 and the previous month’s high at $1830. If the price pulls back to $1780 and starts moving up again, you enter a long trade with a target of $1830, placing your stop-loss below $1770.
Key Points Across All Strategies:
Multiple Timeframes: Always use a combination of timeframes for confirmation. For example, a daily chart may show a bullish setup, but the weekly pivot levels can provide a larger trend context.
Volume: Volume is key in confirming the strength of price movement. Always confirm breakouts or reversals with rising or declining volume.
Risk Management: Set tight stop-loss levels just below support or above resistance to minimize risk and lock in profits at pivot points.
Each of these strategies leverages the powerful pivot and high-low levels provided by the PPR indicator to give traders clear entry, exit, and risk management points across different markets
FiboTrace.V33FiboTrace.V33 - Advanced Fibonacci Retracement Indicator is a powerful and visually intuitive Fibonacci retracement indicator designed to help traders identify key support and resistance levels across multiple timeframes. Whether you’re a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor, FiboTrace.V33 provides the essential tools needed to spot potential price reversals and continuations with precision.
Key Features:
• Dynamic Fibonacci Levels: Automatically plots the most relevant Fibonacci retracement levels based on recent swing highs and lows, ensuring you always have the most accurate and up-to-date levels on your chart.
• Gradient Color Zones: Easily distinguish between different Fibonacci levels with visually appealing gradient color fills. These zones help you quickly identify key areas of price interaction, making your analysis more efficient.
• Customizable Levels: Tailor FiboTrace.V33 to your trading style by adjusting the Fibonacci levels and colors to match your preferences. This flexibility allows you to focus on the levels most relevant to your strategy.
• Multi-Timeframe Versatility: Works seamlessly across all timeframes, from 1-minute charts for day traders to weekly and monthly charts for long-term investors. The indicator adapts to your trading horizon, providing reliable signals in any market environment.
• Confluence Alerts: Receive alerts when price enters zones where multiple Fibonacci levels overlap, indicating strong support or resistance. This feature helps you catch high-probability trade setups without constantly monitoring the charts.
How to Use:
• Identify Entry and Exit Points: Use the plotted Fibonacci levels to determine potential entry and exit points. Price retracements to key Fibonacci levels can signal opportunities to enter trades in the direction of the prevailing trend.
• Spot Reversals and Continuations: Watch for price action around the gradient color zones. A bounce off a Fibonacci level may indicate a trend continuation, while a break could signal a potential reversal.
• Combine with Other Indicators: For best results, consider using FiboTrace.V33 in conjunction with other technical indicators, such as moving averages, RSI, or MACD, to confirm signals and enhance your trading strategy.
Timeframe Recommendations:
• Shorter Timeframes (1-minute to 1-hour): Ideal for quick, intraday trades, though signals might be more prone to noise due to rapid market fluctuations.
• Medium Timeframes (4-hour to daily): Perfect for swing trading, offering more reliable Fibonacci levels that capture broader market trends.
• Longer Timeframes (weekly to monthly): Best for long-term investors, where Fibonacci levels act as strong support and resistance based on significant market moves.
• General Tip: Fibonacci retracement levels are more reliable on higher timeframes, but combining them with other indicators like moving averages or RSI can enhance signal accuracy across any timeframe.
Why FiboTrace.V33?
FiboTrace.V33 is more than just a Fibonacci retracement tool—it’s an essential part of any trader’s toolkit. Its intuitive design and advanced features help you stay ahead of the market, making it easier to identify high-probability trading opportunities and manage risk effectively.
Uptrick: Dual Moving Average Volume Oscillator
Title: Uptrick: Dual Moving Average Volume Oscillator (DPVO)
### Overview
The "Uptrick: Dual Moving Average Volume Oscillator" (DPVO) is an advanced trading tool designed to enhance market analysis by integrating volume data with price action. This indicator is specially developed to provide traders with deeper insights into market dynamics, making it easier to spot potential entry and exit points based on volume and price interactions. The DPVO stands out by offering a sophisticated approach to traditional volume analysis, setting it apart from typical volume indicators available on the TradingView platform.
### Unique Features
Unlike traditional indicators that analyze volume and price movements separately, the DPVO combines these two critical elements to offer a comprehensive view of market behavior. By calculating the Volume Impact, which involves the product of the exponential moving averages (EMAs) of volume and the price range (close - open), this indicator highlights significant trading activities that could indicate strong buying or selling pressure. This method allows traders to see not just the volume spikes, but how those spikes relate to price movements, providing a clearer picture of market sentiment.
### Customization and Inputs
The DPVO is highly customizable, catering to various trading styles and strategies:
- **Oscillator Length (`oscLength`)**: Adjusts the period over which the volume and price difference is analyzed, allowing traders to set it according to their trading timeframe.
- **Fast and Slow Moving Averages (`fastMA` and `slowMA`)**: These parameters control the responsiveness of the DPVO. A shorter `fastMA` coupled with a longer `slowMA` can help in identifying trends quicker or smoothing out market noise for more conservative approaches.
- **Signal Smoothing (`signalSmooth`)**: This input helps in reducing signal noise, making the crossover and crossunder points between the DVO and its smoothed signal line clearer and easier to interpret.
### Functionality Details
The DPVO operates through a sequence of calculated steps that integrate volume data with price movement:
1. **Volume Impact Calculation**: This is the foundational step where the product of the EMA of volume and the EMA of price range (close - open) is calculated. This metric highlights trading sessions where significant volume accompanies substantial price movements, suggesting a strong market response.
2. **Dynamic Volume Oscillator (DVO)**: The heart of the indicator, the DVO, is derived by calculating the difference between the fast EMA and the slow EMA of the Volume Impact. This result is then normalized by dividing by the EMA of the volume over the same period to scale the output, making it consistent across various trading environments.
3. **Signal Generation**: The final output is smoothed using a simple moving average of the DVO to filter out market noise. Buy and sell signals are generated based on the crossover and crossunder of the DVO with its smoothed version, providing clear cues for market entry or exit.
### Originality
The DPVO's originality lies in its innovative integration of volume and price movement, a novel approach not typically observed in other volume indicators. By analyzing the product of volume and price change EMAs, the DPVO captures the essence of market dynamics more holistically than traditional tools, which often only reflect volume levels without contextualizing them with price actions. This dual analysis provides traders with a deeper understanding of market forces, enabling them to make more informed decisions based on a combination of volume surges and significant price movements. The DPVO also introduces a unique normalization and smoothing technique that refines the oscillator's output, offering cleaner and more reliable signals that are adaptable to various market conditions and trading styles.
### Practical Application
The DPVO excels in environments where volume plays a crucial role in validating price movements. Traders can utilize the buy and sell signals generated by the DPVO to enhance their decision-making process. The signals are plotted directly on the trading chart, with buy signals appearing below the price bars and sell signals above, ensuring they are prominent and actionable. This setup is particularly useful for day traders and swing traders who rely on timely and accurate signals to maximize their trading opportunities.
### Best Practices
To maximize the effectiveness of the DPVO, traders should consider the following best practices:
- **Market Selection**: Use the DPVO in markets known for strong volume-price correlation such as major forex pairs, popular stocks, and cryptocurrencies.
- **Signal Confirmation**: While the DPVO provides powerful signals, confirming these signals with additional indicators such as RSI or MACD can increase trade reliability.
- **Risk Management**: Always use stop-loss orders to manage risks associated with trading signals. Adjust the position size based on the volatility of the asset to avoid significant losses.
### Practical Example + How to use it
Practical Example1: Day Trading Cryptocurrencies
For a day trader focusing on the highly volatile cryptocurrency market, the DPVO can be an effective tool on a 15-minute chart. Suppose a trader is monitoring Bitcoin (BTC) during a period of high market activity. The DPVO might show an upward crossover of the DVO above its smoothed signal line while also indicating a significant increase in volume. This could signal that strong buying pressure is entering the market, suggesting a potential short-term rally. The trader could enter a long position based on this signal, setting a stop-loss just below the recent support level to manage risk. If the DPVO later shows a crossover in the opposite direction with decreasing volume, it might signal a good exit point, allowing the trader to lock in profits before a potential pullback.
- **Swing Trading Stocks**: For a swing trader looking at stocks, the DPVO could be applied on a daily chart. If the oscillator shows a consistent downward trend along with increasing volume, this could suggest a potential sell-off, providing a sell signal before a significant downturn.
You can look for:
--> Increase in volume - You can use indicators like 24-hour-Volume to have a better visualization
--> Uptrend/Downtrend in the indicator (HH, HL, LL, LH)
--> Confirmation (Buy signal/Sell signal)
--> Correct Price action (Not too steep moves up or down. Stable moves.) (Optional)
--> Confirmation with other indicators (Optional)
Quick image showing you an example of a buy signal on SOLANA:
### Technical Notes
- **Calculation Efficiency**: The DPVO utilizes exponential moving averages (EMAs) in its calculations, which provides a balance between responsiveness and smoothing. EMAs are favored over simple moving averages in this context because they give more weight to recent data, making the indicator more sensitive to recent market changes.
- **Normalization**: The normalization of the DVO by the EMA of the volume ensures that the oscillator remains consistent across different assets and timeframes. This means the indicator can be used on a wide variety of markets without needing significant adjustments, making it a versatile tool for traders.
- **Signal Line Smoothing**: The final signal line is smoothed using a simple moving average (SMA) to reduce noise. The choice of SMA for smoothing, as opposed to EMA, is intentional to provide a more stable signal that is less prone to frequent whipsaws, which can occur in highly volatile markets.
- **Lag and Sensitivity**: Like all moving average-based indicators, the DPVO may introduce a slight lag in signal generation. However, this is offset by the indicator’s ability to filter out market noise, making it a reliable tool for identifying genuine trends and reversals. Adjusting the `fastMA`, `slowMA`, and `signalSmooth` inputs allows traders to fine-tune the sensitivity of the DPVO to match their specific trading strategy and market conditions.
- **Platform Compatibility**: The DPVO is written in Pine Script™ v5, ensuring compatibility with the latest features and functionalities offered by TradingView. This version takes advantage of optimized functions for performance and accuracy in calculations, making it well-suited for real-time analysis.
Conclusion
The "Uptrick: Dual Moving Average Volume Oscillator" is a revolutionary tool that merges volume analysis with price movement to offer traders a more nuanced understanding of market trends and reversals. Its ability to provide clear, actionable signals based on a unique combination of volume and price changes makes it an invaluable addition to any trader's toolkit. Whether you are managing long-term positions or looking for quick trades, the DPVO provides insights that can help refine any trading strategy, making it a standout choice in the crowded field of technical indicators.
Nothing from this indicator or any other Uptrick Indicators is financial advice. Only you are ultimately responsible for your choices.
Modern Trend IdentifierThis is an update by Lightangel112 to Trendilo (Open-Source).
Thanks @ Lightangel112
The Modern Trend Identifier (MTI) is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed for traders and analysts seeking to accurately determine market trends. This indicator leverages the Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA) to smooth price data and calculate percentage changes, providing a clearer and more responsive trend analysis. MTI is engineered to highlight trend direction with visual cues, fill areas between the indicator and its bands, and color bars based on trend direction, making it a powerful tool for identifying market momentum and potential reversals.
Capabilities
Smoothing and Trend Calculation:
Utilizes ALMA to smooth price data, reducing noise and providing a clearer view of the trend.
Calculates percentage changes in price over a user-defined lookback period.
Dynamic Range Adjustment:
Normalizes the ALMA percentage change values to ensure they stay within a -100 to 100 range.
Uses a combination of linear and smoothstep compression to handle extreme values without losing sensitivity.
Trend Direction and Highlighting:
Determines the trend direction based on the relationship between the smoothed ALMA percentage change and dynamically adjusted RMS (Root Mean Square) bands.
Colors the trend line to visually indicate whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or neutral state.
Dynamic Threshold Calculation:
Calculates dynamic thresholds using percentile ranks to adapt to changing market conditions.
Visualization Enhancements:
Fills areas between the ALMA percentage change line and its RMS bands to provide a clear visual indication of the trend strength.
Offers the option to color price bars based on the identified trend direction.
Customizable Settings:
Provides extensive customization options for lookback periods, smoothing parameters, ALMA settings, band multipliers, and more.
Allows users to enable or disable various visual enhancements and customize their appearance.
Use Cases
Trend Identification:
MTI helps traders identify the current market trend, whether it's bullish, bearish, or neutral. This can be particularly useful for trend-following strategies.
Momentum Analysis:
By highlighting areas of strong momentum, MTI enables traders to spot potential breakouts or breakdowns. This can be useful for both entry and exit decisions.
Support and Resistance Levels:
The dynamic threshold bands can act as support and resistance levels. Traders can use these levels to set stop-loss and take-profit orders.
Divergence Detection:
MTI can help in identifying divergences between price and the indicator, which can signal potential trend reversals. This is useful for traders looking to capitalize on trend changes.
Risk Management:
The fill areas and colored bars provide clear visual cues about trend strength and direction, aiding in better risk management. Traders can adjust their positions based on the strength of the trend.
Backtesting:
The extensive customization options allow traders to backtest different settings and parameters to optimize their trading strategies for various market conditions.
Multiple Timeframes:
MTI can be applied to multiple timeframes, from intraday charts to daily, weekly, or monthly charts, making it a versatile tool for traders with different trading styles.
Example Scenarios
Day Trading:
A day trader can use MTI on a 5-minute chart to identify intraday trends. By adjusting the lookback period and smoothing parameters, the trader can quickly spot potential entry and exit points based on short-term momentum changes.
Swing Trading:
A swing trader might apply MTI to a 4-hour chart to identify medium-term trends. The dynamic thresholds can help in setting appropriate stop-loss levels, while the trend direction highlighting aids in making informed decisions about holding or exiting positions.
Position Trading:
For a position trader using a daily chart, MTI can help identify the overarching trend. The trader can use the fill areas and bar coloring to assess the strength of the trend and make decisions about entering or exiting long-term positions.
Market Analysis:
An analyst could use MTI to study historical price movements and identify patterns. By examining how the indicator reacted to past market conditions, the analyst can gain insights into potential future price movements.
In summary, the Modern Trend Identifier (MTI) is a versatile and powerful tool that enhances trend analysis with advanced smoothing techniques, dynamic adjustments, and comprehensive visual cues. It is designed to meet the needs of traders and analysts across various trading styles and timeframes, providing clear and actionable insights into market trends and momentum.
Updated with the following:
Additions and Enhancements in MTI
Grouped Inputs with Descriptive Tooltips:
Inputs are organized into groups for better clarity.
Each input parameter includes a descriptive tooltip.
Dynamic Threshold Calculation:
Added dynamic threshold calculation using percentile ranks to adapt to changing market conditions.
Normalization and Compression:
Added normalization factor to ensure plots are within -100 to 100 range.
Introduced smoothstep function for smooth transition and selectively applied linear and smoothstep compression to values outside -80 to 100 range.
Enhanced Visualization:
Highlighted trend direction with RGB colors.
Enhanced fill areas between the ALMA percentage change line and its RMS bands.
Colored price bars based on the identified trend direction.
RMS Lines Adjustment:
Dynamically adjusted RMS calculation without strict capping.
Ensured RMS lines stay below fill areas to maintain clarity.
Descriptive and Organized Code:
Enhanced code clarity with detailed comments.
Organized code into logical sections for better readability and maintenance.
Key Differences and Improvements.
Input Customization:
Trendilo: Inputs are simple and ungrouped.
MTI: Inputs are grouped and include tooltips for better user guidance.
Trend Calculation:
Trendilo: Uses ALMA and calculates percentage change.
MTI: Enhanced with normalization, compression, and dynamic threshold calculation.
Normalization and Compression:
Trendilo: No normalization or compression applied.
MTI: Normalizes values to -100 to 100 range and applies smoothstep compression to handle extreme values.
Dynamic RMS Adjustment:
Trendilo: Simple RMS calculation.
MTI: Dynamically adjusted RMS calculation to ensure clarity in visualization.
Visual Enhancements:
Trendilo: Basic trend highlighting and filling.
MTI: Enhanced visual cues with RGB colors, dynamic threshold bands, and improved fill areas.
Code Clarity:
Trendilo: Functional but lacks detailed comments and organization.
MTI: Well-organized, extensively commented code for better readability and maintainability.
Weekly Open to Close Percentage ChangeThe "Weekly Open to Close Percentage Change Indicator" is a powerful tool designed to help traders and investors track the percentage change in price from the open of the current week's candle to its close. This indicator provides a clear visualization of how the price has moved within the week, offering valuable insights into weekly market trends and momentum.
Key Features:
Weekly Analysis: Focuses on weekly time frames, making it ideal for swing traders and long-term investors.
Percentage Change Calculation: Accurately calculates the percentage change from the open price of the current week's candle to the close price.
Color-Coded Visualization: Uses color coding to differentiate between positive and negative changes:
Green for positive percentage changes (price increase).
Red for negative percentage changes (price decrease).
Histogram Display: Plots the percentage change as a histogram for easy visual interpretation.
Background Highlighting: Adds a background color with transparency to highlight the nature of the change, enhancing chart readability.
Optional Labels: Includes an option to display percentage change values as small dots at the top for quick reference.
How to Use:
Add the script to your TradingView chart by opening the Pine Editor, pasting the script, and saving it.
Apply the indicator to your chart. It will automatically calculate and display the weekly percentage change.
Use the color-coded histogram and background to quickly assess weekly price movements and make informed trading decisions.
Use Cases:
Trend Identification: Quickly identify whether the market is trending upwards or downwards on a weekly basis.
Market Sentiment: Gauge the market sentiment by observing the weekly price changes.
Swing Trading: Ideal for swing traders who base their strategies on weekly price movements.
Note: This indicator is designed for educational and informational purposes. Always conduct thorough analysis and consider multiple indicators and factors when making trading decisions.
Adaptive Moving Average (AMA) Signals (Zeiierman)█ Overview
The Adaptive Moving Average (AMA) Signals indicator, enhances the classic concept of moving averages by making them adaptive to the market's volatility. This adaptability makes the AMA particularly useful in identifying market trends with varying degrees of volatility.
The core of the AMA's adaptability lies in its Efficiency Ratio (ER), which measures the directionality of the market over a given period. The ER is calculated by dividing the absolute change in price over a period by the sum of the absolute differences in daily prices over the same period.
⚪ Why It's Useful
The AMA Signals indicator is particularly useful because of its adaptability to changing market conditions. Unlike static moving averages, it dynamically adjusts, providing more relevant signals that can help traders capture trends earlier or identify reversals with greater accuracy. Its configurability makes it suitable for various trading strategies and timeframes, from day trading to swing trading.
█ How It Works
The AMA Signals indicator operates on the principle of adapting to market efficiency through the calculation of the Efficiency Ratio (ER), which measures the directionality of the market over a specified period. By comparing the net price change to total price movements, the AMA adjusts its sensitivity, becoming faster during trending markets and slower during sideways markets. This adaptability is enhanced by a gamma parameter that filters signals for either trend continuation or reversal, making it versatile across different market conditions.
change = math.abs(close - close )
volatility = math.sum(math.abs(close - close ), n)
ER = change / volatility
Efficiency Ratio (ER) Calculation: The AMA begins with the computation of the Efficiency Ratio (ER), which measures the market's directionality over a specified period. The ER is a ratio of the net price change to the total price movements, serving as a measure of the efficiency of price movements.
Adaptive Smoothing: Based on the ER, the indicator calculates the smoothing constants for the fastest and slowest Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). These constants are then used to compute a Scaled Smoothing Coefficient (SC) that adapts the moving average to the market's efficiency, making it faster during trending periods and slower in sideways markets.
Signal Generation: The AMA applies a filter, adjusted by a "gamma" parameter, to identify trading signals. This gamma influences the sensitivity towards trend or reversal signals, with options to adjust for focusing on either trend-following or counter-trend signals.
█ How to Use
Trend Identification: Use the AMA to identify the direction of the trend. An upward moving AMA indicates a bullish trend, while a downward moving AMA suggests a bearish trend.
Trend Trading: Look for buy signals when the AMA is trending upwards and sell signals during a downward trend. Adjust the fast and slow EMA lengths to match the desired sensitivity and timeframe.
Reversal Trading: Set the gamma to a positive value to focus on reversal signals, identifying potential market turnarounds.
█ Settings
Period for ER calculation: Defines the lookback period for calculating the Efficiency Ratio, affecting how quickly the AMA responds to changes in market efficiency.
Fast EMA Length and Slow EMA Length: Determine the responsiveness of the AMA to recent price changes, allowing traders to fine-tune the indicator to their trading style.
Signal Gamma: Adjusts the sensitivity of the filter applied to the AMA, with the ability to focus on trend signals or reversal signals based on its value.
AMA Candles: An innovative feature that plots candles based on the AMA calculation, providing visual cues about the market trend and potential reversals.
█ Alerts
The AMA Signals indicator includes configurable alerts for buy and sell signals, as well as positive and negative trend changes.
-----------------
Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Candlestick Bias OscillatorCandlestick Bias Oscillator (CBO)
The Candlestick Bias Oscillator (CBO) with Signal Line is a pioneering indicator developed for the TradingView platform, designed to offer traders a nuanced analysis of market sentiment through the unique lens of candlestick patterns. This indicator stands out by merging traditional concepts of price action analysis with innovative mathematical computations, providing a fresh perspective on trend detection and potential market reversals.
Originality and Utility
At the core of the CBO's originality is its method of calculating the bias of candlesticks. Unlike conventional oscillators that may rely solely on closing prices or high-low ranges, the CBO incorporates both the body and wick of candlesticks into its analysis. This dual consideration allows for a more rounded understanding of market sentiment, capturing both the directional momentum and the strength of price rejections within a single oscillator.
Mathematical Foundations
1. Body Bias: The CBO calculates the body bias by assessing the relative position of the close to the open within the day's range, scaled to a -100 to 100 range. This calculation reflects the bullish or bearish sentiment of the market, based on the day's closing momentum.
Body Bias = (Close−Open)/(High−Low) x 100
Wick Bias: Similarly, the wick bias calculation takes into account the lengths of the upper and lower wicks, indicating rejection levels beyond the body's close. The balance between these wicks is scaled similarly to the body bias, offering insight into the market's indecision or rejection of certain price levels.
Wick Bias=(Lower Wick−Upper Wick)/(Total Wick Length) × 100
3. Overall Bias and Oscillator: By averaging the body and wick biases, the CBO yields an overall bias score, which is then smoothed over a user-defined period to create the oscillator. This oscillator provides a clear visual representation of the market's underlying sentiment, smoothed to filter out the noise.
4. Signal Line: A secondary smoothing of the oscillator creates the signal line, offering a trigger for potential trading signals when the oscillator crosses this line, indicative of a change in market momentum.
How to Use the CBO:
The CBO is versatile, suitable for various trading strategies, including scalping, swing trading, and long-term trend following. Traders can use the oscillator and signal line crossovers as indications for entry or exit points. The relative position of the oscillator to the zero line further provides insight into the prevailing market bias, enabling traders to align their strategies with the broader market sentiment.
Why It Adds Value:
The CBO's innovative approach to analyzing candlestick patterns fills a gap in the existing array of TradingView indicators. By providing a detailed analysis of both candle bodies and wicks, the CBO offers a more comprehensive view of market sentiment than traditional oscillators. This can be particularly useful for traders looking to gauge the strength of price movements and potential reversal points with greater precision.
Conclusion:
The Candle Bias Oscillator with Signal Line is not just another addition to the plethora of indicators on TradingView. It represents a significant advancement in the analysis of market sentiment, combining traditional concepts with a novel mathematical approach. By offering a deeper insight into the dynamics of candlestick patterns, the CBO equips traders with a powerful tool to navigate the complexities of the market with increased confidence.
Explore the unique insights provided by the CBO and integrate it into your trading strategy for a more informed and nuanced market analysis.
RMB - High and LowDescription:
Introducing the "RMB - High and Low" indicator, a versatile and powerful tool designed for traders who seek a comprehensive view of the market across multiple time frames. This indicator is tailored to identify and display key support and resistance levels, adapting to your chosen time frame - from as short as 15 minutes to as long as a week.
Key Features:
Multi-Time Frame Flexibility : Easily switch between 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours, 4 hours, daily, and weekly time frames to align with your trading strategy and market analysis.
Dynamic Support and Resistance Levels : The indicator plots the highest high (resistance) and the lowest low (support) for the selected time frame, providing real-time insights into market behavior and potential pivot points.
Time Frame-Specific Labels : Each resistance and support line is labeled with the corresponding time frame, offering a clear and immediate reference, enhancing your chart analysis and decision-making process.
User-Friendly Interface : A simple and intuitive input interface allows for quick adjustments, making it easy to toggle between different time frames based on your trading needs.
Visual Clarity : Designed with distinct color coding - green for resistance and red for support - ensuring that key levels are easily identifiable at a glance.
Ideal Use Cases:
Day Trading: Utilize shorter time frames to capture quick market movements and identify intraday pivot points.
Swing Trading: Leverage longer time frames to understand broader market trends and establish entry and exit points.
Diverse Strategies: Whether you're scalping, trend following, or employing mean reversion tactics, adapt the indicator to fit your unique approach.
Conclusion:
The "RMB - High and Low" indicator is a must-have tool for traders who demand flexibility and precision in their technical analysis. By offering insights across various time frames, this indicator empowers you to make well-informed decisions, adapt to market changes swiftly, and enhance your trading performance.
Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci StrategyThe Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci Strategy is a powerful technical analysis trading strategy designed to identify potential entry and exit points in financial markets. This strategy combines two widely used indicators, Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci retracement levels, to assist traders in making informed trading decisions.
Key Features:
Bollinger Bands: This strategy utilizes Bollinger Bands, a volatility-based indicator that consists of an upper band, a lower band, and a middle (basis) line. Bollinger Bands help traders visualize price volatility and potential reversal points.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Fibonacci retracement levels are essential tools for identifying potential support and resistance levels in price charts. This strategy incorporates Fibonacci retracement levels, including the 0% and 100% levels, to aid in pinpointing key price levels.
Long and Short Signals: The strategy generates long (buy) and short (sell) signals based on specific conditions derived from Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci levels. Long signals are generated when price crosses above the upper Bollinger Band and when the price is above the Fibonacci low level. Short signals are generated when price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band and when the price is below the Fibonacci high level.
Position Management: To prevent multiple concurrent positions of the same type (long or short), the strategy employs position management logic. It tracks open positions and ensures that only one position type is active at a time.
Exit Conditions: The strategy includes customizable exit conditions to manage and close open positions. Traders can fine-tune exit criteria to align with their risk management and profit-taking strategies.
User-Friendly: This strategy script is user-friendly and can be easily integrated into the TradingView platform, allowing traders to apply it to various financial instruments and timeframes.
Usage:
Traders and investors can apply the Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci Strategy to a wide range of financial markets, including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. It can be adapted to different timeframes to suit various trading styles, from day trading to swing trading.
Disclaimer:
Trading carries inherent risks, and this strategy is no exception. It is essential to use proper risk management techniques, including stop-loss orders, and thoroughly backtest the strategy on historical data before implementing it in live trading.
The Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci Strategy is a valuable tool for technical traders seeking well-defined entry and exit points based on robust indicators. It can serve as a foundation for traders to build and customize their trading strategies according to their individual preferences and risk tolerance.
Feel free to customize this description to add any additional details or specifications unique to your strategy. When publishing your strategy on a trading platform like TradingView, a clear and informative description can help potential users understand and use your strategy effectively.
W and M Pattern Indicator- SwaGThis is a TradingView indicator script that identifies potential buy and sell signals based on ‘W’ and ‘M’ patterns in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). It provides visual alerts and draws horizontal lines to indicate potential trade entry points.
User Manual:
Inputs: The script takes two inputs - an upper limit and a lower limit. The default values are 70 and 40, respectively.
RSI Calculation: The script calculates the RSI based on the closing prices of the last 14 periods.
Pattern Identification: It identifies ‘W’ patterns when the RSI makes a higher low within the lower limit, and ‘M’ patterns when the RSI makes a lower high within the upper limit.
Visual Alerts: The script plots these patterns on the chart. ‘W’ patterns are marked with small green triangles below the bars, and ‘M’ patterns are marked with small red triangles above the bars.
Trade Entry Points: A horizontal line is drawn at the high or low of the candle to represent potential trade entry points. The line starts from one bar to the left and extends 10 bars to the right.
Trading Strategy:
For investing, use a weekly timeframe.
For swing trading, use a daily timeframe.
For intraday trading, use a 5 or 15-minute timeframe. Only consider sell-side signals for intraday trading.
Take a buy position if the high breaks above the green line or sell if the low breaks below the red line.
Use recent signals only and avoid signals that are too old.
Swing highs or lows will be your stop-loss level.
Always think about your stop-loss before entering a trade, not your target.
Avoid trades with a large stop-loss.
Remember, this script is a tool to aid in your trading decisions. Always test your strategies thoroughly before live trading. Happy trading! 😊
Trend Correlation HeatmapHello everyone!
I am excited to release my trend correlation heatmap, or trend heatmap for short.
Per usual, I think its important to explain the theory before we get into the use of the indicator, so let's get into the theory!
The theory:
So what is a correlation?
Correlation is the relationship one variable has to another. Correlations are the basis of everything I do as a quantitative trader. From the correlation between the same variables (i.e. autocorrelation), the correlation between other variables (i.e. VIX and SPY, SPY High and SPY Low, DXY and ES1! close, etc.) and, as well, the correlation between price and time (time series correlation).
This may sound very familiar to you, especially if you are a user, observer or follower of my ideas and/or indicators. Ninety-five percent of my indicators are a function of one of those three things. Whether it be a time series based indicator (i.e.my time series indicator), whether it be autocorrelation (my autoregressive cloud indicator or my autocorrelation oscillator) or whether it be regressive in nature (i.e. my SPY Volume weighted close, or even my expected move which uses averages in lieu of regressive approaches but is foundational in regression principles. Or even my VIX oscillator which relies on the premise of correlations between tickers.) So correlation is extremely important to me and while its true I am more of a regression trader than anything, I would argue that I am more of a correlation trader, because correlations are the backbone of how I develop math models of stocks.
What I am trying to stress here is the importance of correlations. They really truly are foundational to any type of quantitative analysis for stocks. And as such, understanding the current relationship a stock has to time is pivotal for any meaningful analysis to be conducted.
So what is correlation to time and what does it tell us?
Correlation to time, otherwise known and commonly referred to as "Time Series", is the relationship a ticker's price has to the passing of time. It is displayed in the traditional Pearson Correlation Coefficient or R value and can be any value from -1 (strong negative relationship, i.e. a strong downtrend) to + 1 (i.e. a strong positive relationship, i.e. a strong uptrend). The higher or lower the value the stronger the up or downtrend is.
As such, correlation to time tells us two very important things. These are:
a) The direction of the stock; and
b) The strength of the trend.
Let's take a look at an example:
Above we have a chart of QQQ. We can see a trendline that seems to fit well. The questions we ask as traders are:
1. What is the likelihood QQQ breaks down from this trendline?
2. What is the likelihood QQQ continues up?
3. What is the likelihood QQQ does a false breakdown?
There are numerous mathematical approaches we can take to answer these questions. For example, 1 and 2 can be answered by use of a Cumulative Distribution Density analysis (CDDA) or even a linear or loglinear regression analysis and 3 can be answered, more or less, with a linear regression analysis and standard error ascertainment, or even just a general comparison using a data science approach (such as cosine similarity or Manhattan distance).
But, the reality is, all 3 of these questions can be visualized, at least in some way, by simply looking at the correlation to time. Let's look at this chart again, this time with the correlation heatmap applied:
If we look at the indicator we can see some pivotal things. These are:
1. We have 4, very strong uptrends that span both higher AND lower timeframes. We have a strong uptrend of 0.96 on the 5 minute, 50 candle period. We have a strong uptrend at the 300 candle lookback period on the 1 minute, we have a strong uptrend on the 100 day lookback on the daily timeframe period and we have a strong uptrend on the 5 minute on the 500 candle lookback period.
2. By comparison, we have 3 downtrends, all of which have correlations less than the 4 uptrends. All of the downtrends have a correlation above -0.8 (which we would want lower than -0.8 to be very strong), and all of the uptrends are greater than + 0.80.
3. We can also see that the uptrends are not confined to the smaller timeframes. We have multiple uptrends on multiple timeframes and both short term (50 to 100 candles) and long term (up to 500 candles).
4. The overall trend is strengthening to the upside manifested by a positive Max Change and a Positive Min change (to be discussed later more in-depth).
With this, we can see that QQQ is actually very strong and likely will continue at least some upside. If we let this play out:
We continued up, had one test and then bounced.
Now, I want to specify, this indicator is not a panacea for all trading. And in relation to the 3 questions posed, they are best answered, at least quantitatively, not only by correlation but also by the aforementioned methods (CDDA, etc.) but correlation will help you get a feel for the strength or weakness present with a stock.
What are some tangible applications of the indicator?
For me, this indicator is used in many ways. Let me outline some ways I generally apply this indicator in my day and swing trading:
1. Gauging the strength of the stock: The indictor tells you the most prevalent behavior of the stock. Are there more downtrends than uptrends present? Are the downtrends present on the larger timeframes vs uptrends on the shorter indicating a possible bullish reversal? or vice versa? Are the trends strengthening or weakening? All of these things can be visualized with the indicator.
2. Setting parameters for other indicators: If you trade EMAs or SMAs, you may have a "one size fits all" approach. However, its actually better to adjust your EMA or SMA length to the actual trend itself. Take a look at this:
This is QQQ on the 1 hour with the 200 EMA with 200 standard deviation bands added. If we look at the heatmap, we can see, yes indeed 200 has a fairly strong uptrend correlation of 0.70. But the strongest hourly uptrend is actually at 400 candles, with a correlation of 0.91. So what happens if we change the EMA length and standard deviation to 400? This:
The exact areas are circled and colour coded. You can see, the 400 offers more of a better reference point of supports and resistances as well as a better overall trend fit. And this is why I never advocate for getting married to a specific EMA. If you are an EMA 200 lover or 21 or 51, know that these are not always the best depending on the trend and situation.
Components of the indicator:
Ah okay, now for the boring stuff. Let's go over the functionality of the indicator. I tried to keep it simple, so it is pretty straight forward. If we open the menu here are our options:
We have the ability to toggle whichever timeframes we want. We also have the ability to toggle on or off the legend that displays the colour codes and the Max and Min highest change.
Max and Min highest change: The max and min highest change simply display the change in correlation over the previous 14 candles. An increasing Max change means that the Max trend is strengthening. If we see an increasing Max change and an increasing Min change (the Min correlation is moving up), this means the stock is bullish. Why? Because the min (i.e. ideally a big negative number) is going up closer to the positives. Therefore, the downtrend is weakening.
If we see both the Max and Min declining (red), that means the uptrend is weakening and downtrend is strengthening. Here are some examples:
Final Thoughts:
And that is the indicator and the theory behind the indicator.
In a nutshell, to summarize, the indicator simply tracks the correlation of a ticker to time on multiple timeframes. This will allow you to make judgements about strength, sentiment and also help you adjust which tools and timeframes you are using to perform your analyses.
As well, to make the indicator more user friendly, I tried to make the colours distinctively different. I was going to do different shades but it was a little difficult to visualize. As such, I have included a toggle-able legend with a breakdown of the colour codes!
That's it my friends, I hope you find it useful!
Safe trades and leave your questions, comments and feedback below!
Moving Average Filters Add-on w/ Expanded Source Types [Loxx]Moving Average Filters Add-on w/ Expanded Source Types is a conglomeration of specialized and traditional moving averages that will be used in most of indicators that I publish moving forward. There are 39 moving averages included in this indicator as well as expanded source types including traditional Heiken Ashi and Better Heiken Ashi candles. You can read about the expanded source types clicking here . About half of these moving averages are closed source on other trading platforms. This indicator serves as a reference point for future public/private, open/closed source indicators that I publish to TradingView. Information about these moving averages was gleaned from various forex and trading forums and platforms as well as TASC publications and other assorted research publications.
________________________________________________________________
Included moving averages
ADXvma - Average Directional Volatility Moving Average
Linnsoft's ADXvma formula is a volatility-based moving average, with the volatility being determined by the value of the ADX indicator.
The ADXvma has the SMA in Chande's CMO replaced with an EMA, it then uses a few more layers of EMA smoothing before the "Volatility Index" is calculated.
A side effect is, those additional layers slow down the ADXvma when you compare it to Chande's Variable Index Dynamic Average VIDYA.
The ADXVMA provides support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends and will stay flat for longer, but will create some of the most accurate market signals when it decides to move.
Ahrens Moving Average
Richard D. Ahrens's Moving Average promises "Smoother Data" that isn't influenced by the occasional price spike. It works by using the Open and the Close in his formula so that the only time the Ahrens Moving Average will change is when the candlestick is either making new highs or new lows.
Alexander Moving Average - ALXMA
This Moving Average uses an elaborate smoothing formula and utilizes a 7 period Moving Average. It corresponds to fitting a second-order polynomial to seven consecutive observations. This moving average is rarely used in trading but is interesting as this Moving Average has been applied to diffusion indexes that tend to be very volatile.
Double Exponential Moving Average - DEMA
The Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) combines a smoothed EMA and a single EMA to provide a low-lag indicator. It's primary purpose is to reduce the amount of "lagging entry" opportunities, and like all Moving Averages, the DEMA confirms uptrends whenever price crosses on top of it and closes above it, and confirms downtrends when the price crosses under it and closes below it - but with significantly less lag.
Double Smoothed Exponential Moving Average - DSEMA
The Double Smoothed Exponential Moving Average is a lot less laggy compared to a traditional EMA. It's also considered a leading indicator compared to the EMA, and is best utilized whenever smoothness and speed of reaction to market changes are required.
Exponential Moving Average - EMA
The EMA places more significance on recent data points and moves closer to price than the SMA (Simple Moving Average). It reacts faster to volatility due to its emphasis on recent data and is known for its ability to give greater weight to recent and more relevant data. The EMA is therefore seen as an enhancement over the SMA.
Fast Exponential Moving Average - FEMA
An Exponential Moving Average with a short look-back period.
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average - FRAMA
The Fractal Adaptive Moving Average by John Ehlers is an intelligent adaptive Moving Average which takes the importance of price changes into account and follows price closely enough to display significant moves whilst remaining flat if price ranges. The FRAMA does this by dynamically adjusting the look-back period based on the market's fractal geometry.
Hull Moving Average - HMA
Alan Hull's HMA makes use of weighted moving averages to prioritize recent values and greatly reduce lag whilst maintaining the smoothness of a traditional Moving Average. For this reason, it's seen as a well-suited Moving Average for identifying entry points.
IE/2 - Early T3 by Tim Tilson
The IE/2 is a Moving Average that uses Linear Regression slope in its calculation to help with smoothing. It's a worthy Moving Average on it's own, even though it is the precursor and very early version of the famous "T3 Indicator".
Integral of Linear Regression Slope - ILRS
A Moving Average where the slope of a linear regression line is simply integrated as it is fitted in a moving window of length N (natural numbers in maths) across the data. The derivative of ILRS is the linear regression slope. ILRS is not the same as a SMA (Simple Moving Average) of length N, which is actually the midpoint of the linear regression line as it moves across the data.
Instantaneous Trendline
The Instantaneous Trendline is created by removing the dominant cycle component from the price information which makes this Moving Average suitable for medium to long-term trading.
Laguerre Filter
The Laguerre Filter is a smoothing filter which is based on Laguerre polynomials. The filter requires the current price, three prior prices, a user defined factor called Alpha to fill its calculation.
Adjusting the Alpha coefficient is used to increase or decrease its lag and it's smoothness.
Leader Exponential Moving Average
The Leader EMA was created by Giorgos E. Siligardos who created a Moving Average which was able to eliminate lag altogether whilst maintaining some smoothness. It was first described during his research paper "MACD Leader" where he applied this to the MACD to improve its signals and remove its lagging issue. This filter uses his leading MACD's "modified EMA" and can be used as a zero lag filter.
Linear Regression Value - LSMA (Least Squares Moving Average)
LSMA as a Moving Average is based on plotting the end point of the linear regression line. It compares the current value to the prior value and a determination is made of a possible trend, eg. the linear regression line is pointing up or down.
Linear Weighted Moving Average - LWMA
LWMA reacts to price quicker than the SMA and EMA. Although it's similar to the Simple Moving Average, the difference is that a weight coefficient is multiplied to the price which means the most recent price has the highest weighting, and each prior price has progressively less weight. The weights drop in a linear fashion.
McGinley Dynamic
John McGinley created this Moving Average to track price better than traditional Moving Averages. It does this by incorporating an automatic adjustment factor into its formula, which speeds (or slows) the indicator in trending, or ranging, markets.
McNicholl EMA
Dennis McNicholl developed this Moving Average to use as his center line for his "Better Bollinger Bands" indicator and was successful because it responded better to volatility changes over the standard SMA and managed to avoid common whipsaws.
Non lag moving average
The Non Lag Moving average follows price closely and gives very quick signals as well as early signals of price change. As a standalone Moving Average, it should not be used on its own, but as an additional confluence tool for early signals.
Parabolic Weighted Moving Average
The Parabolic Weighted Moving Average is a variation of the Linear Weighted Moving Average. The Linear Weighted Moving Average calculates the average by assigning different weight to each element in its calculation. The Parabolic Weighted Moving Average is a variation that allows weights to be changed to form a parabolic curve. It is done simply by using the Power parameter of this indicator.
Recursive Moving Trendline
Dennis Meyers's Recursive Moving Trendline uses a recursive (repeated application of a rule) polynomial fit, a technique that uses a small number of past values estimations of price and today's price to predict tomorrows price.
Simple Moving Average - SMA
The SMA calculates the average of a range of prices by adding recent prices and then dividing that figure by the number of time periods in the calculation average. It is the most basic Moving Average which is seen as a reliable tool for starting off with Moving Average studies. As reliable as it may be, the basic moving average will work better when it's enhanced into an EMA.
Sine Weighted Moving Average
The Sine Weighted Moving Average assigns the most weight at the middle of the data set. It does this by weighting from the first half of a Sine Wave Cycle and the most weighting is given to the data in the middle of that data set. The Sine WMA closely resembles the TMA (Triangular Moving Average).
Smoothed Moving Average - SMMA
The Smoothed Moving Average is similar to the Simple Moving Average (SMA), but aims to reduce noise rather than reduce lag. SMMA takes all prices into account and uses a long lookback period. Due to this, it's seen a an accurate yet laggy Moving Average.
Smoother
The Smoother filter is a faster-reacting smoothing technique which generates considerably less lag than the SMMA (Smoothed Moving Average). It gives earlier signals but can also create false signals due to its earlier reactions. This filter is sometimes wrongly mistaken for the superior Jurik Smoothing algorithm.
Super Smoother
The Super Smoother filter uses John Ehlers’s “Super Smoother” which consists of a a Two pole Butterworth filter combined with a 2-bar SMA (Simple Moving Average) that suppresses the 22050 Hz Nyquist frequency: A characteristic of a sampler, which converts a continuous function or signal into a discrete sequence.
Three pole Ehlers Butterworth
The 3 pole Ehlers Butterworth (as well as the Two pole Butterworth) are both superior alternatives to the EMA and SMA. They aim at producing less lag whilst maintaining accuracy. The 2 pole filter will give you a better approximation for price, whereas the 3 pole filter has superior smoothing.
Three pole Ehlers smoother
The 3 pole Ehlers smoother works almost as close to price as the above mentioned 3 Pole Ehlers Butterworth. It acts as a strong baseline for signals but removes some noise. Side by side, it hardly differs from the Three Pole Ehlers Butterworth but when examined closely, it has better overshoot reduction compared to the 3 pole Ehlers Butterworth.
Triangular Moving Average - TMA
The TMA is similar to the EMA but uses a different weighting scheme. Exponential and weighted Moving Averages will assign weight to the most recent price data. Simple moving averages will assign the weight equally across all the price data. With a TMA (Triangular Moving Average), it is double smoother (averaged twice) so the majority of the weight is assigned to the middle portion of the data.
The TMA and Sine Weighted Moving Average Filter are almost identical at times.
Triple Exponential Moving Average - TEMA
The TEMA uses multiple EMA calculations as well as subtracting lag to create a tool which can be used for scalping pullbacks. As it follows price closely, it's signals are considered very noisy and should only be used in extremely fast-paced trading conditions.
Two pole Ehlers Butterworth
The 2 pole Ehlers Butterworth (as well as the three pole Butterworth mentioned above) is another filter that cuts out the noise and follows the price closely. The 2 pole is seen as a faster, leading filter over the 3 pole and follows price a bit more closely. Analysts will utilize both a 2 pole and a 3 pole Butterworth on the same chart using the same period, but having both on chart allows its crosses to be traded.
Two pole Ehlers smoother
A smoother version of the Two pole Ehlers Butterworth. This filter is the faster version out of the 3 pole Ehlers Butterworth. It does a decent job at cutting out market noise whilst emphasizing a closer following to price over the 3 pole Ehlers.
Volume Weighted EMA - VEMA
Utilizing tick volume in MT4 (or real volume in MT5), this EMA will use the Volume reading in its decision to plot its moves. The more Volume it detects on a move, the more authority (confirmation) it has. And this EMA uses those Volume readings to plot its movements.
Studies show that tick volume and real volume have a very strong correlation, so using this filter in MT4 or MT5 produces very similar results and readings.
Zero Lag DEMA - Zero Lag Double Exponential Moving Average
John Ehlers's Zero Lag DEMA's aim is to eliminate the inherent lag associated with all trend following indicators which average a price over time. Because this is a Double Exponential Moving Average with Zero Lag, it has a tendency to overshoot and create a lot of false signals for swing trading. It can however be used for quick scalping or as a secondary indicator for confluence.
Zero Lag Moving Average
The Zero Lag Moving Average is described by its creator, John Ehlers, as a Moving Average with absolutely no delay. And it's for this reason that this filter will cause a lot of abrupt signals which will not be ideal for medium to long-term traders. This filter is designed to follow price as close as possible whilst de-lagging data instead of basing it on regular data. The way this is done is by attempting to remove the cumulative effect of the Moving Average.
Zero Lag TEMA - Zero Lag Triple Exponential Moving Average
Just like the Zero Lag DEMA, this filter will give you the fastest signals out of all the Zero Lag Moving Averages. This is useful for scalping but dangerous for medium to long-term traders, especially during market Volatility and news events. Having no lag, this filter also has no smoothing in its signals and can cause some very bizarre behavior when applied to certain indicators.
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What are Heiken Ashi "better" candles?
The "better formula" was proposed in an article/memo by BNP-Paribas (In Warrants & Zertifikate, No. 8, August 2004 (a monthly German magazine published by BNP Paribas, Frankfurt), there is an article by Sebastian Schmidt about further development (smoothing) of Heikin-Ashi chart.)
They proposed to use the following:
(Open+Close)/2+(((Close-Open)/( High-Low ))*ABS((Close-Open)/2))
instead of using :
haClose = (O+H+L+C)/4
According to that document the HA representation using their proposed formula is better than the traditional formula.
What are traditional Heiken-Ashi candles?
The Heikin-Ashi technique averages price data to create a Japanese candlestick chart that filters out market noise.
Heikin-Ashi charts, developed by Munehisa Homma in the 1700s, share some characteristics with standard candlestick charts but differ based on the values used to create each candle. Instead of using the open, high, low, and close like standard candlestick charts, the Heikin-Ashi technique uses a modified formula based on two-period averages. This gives the chart a smoother appearance, making it easier to spots trends and reversals, but also obscures gaps and some price data.
Expanded generic source types:
Close = close
Open = open
High = high
Low = low
Median = hl2
Typical = hlc3
Weighted = hlcc4
Average = ohlc4
Average Median Body = (open+close)/2
Trend Biased = (see code, too complex to explain here)
Trend Biased (extreme) = (see code, too complex to explain here)
Included:
-Toggle bar color on/off
-Toggle signal line on/off
